Last week’s victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) brings the opposition party to power and Tsai Ing-wen to the presidency; the first woman to hold the office. Dr. Dennis Hickey, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Missouri State University, offers his thoughts on this historic election in the Center for Strategic and International Studies PacNet newsletter and the China Times.
For those who do not read Chinese, here are his China Times comments in English:
America’s longstanding policy toward the “Taiwan Issue” will not change as a result of this election. Our policy will continue to be based upon the three US-China Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act and a variety of presidential statements and understandings. Some American politicians might call for changes in policy because we are in an election-year here. Once elected, however, the new US president will not follow through. For example, President Ronald Reagan promised to “reestablish” diplomatic relations with the ROC during his campaign for president in 1980. Following the election, however, not only did he not honor that promise, he approved arms sales to China and drafted the 1982 US-PRC Communiqué promising to reduce US arms sales to Taiwan. So, one should not look for any major changes in US policy.
According to US policy, the future of Taiwan must be settled peacefully and settled by the people on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The US has a continued interest in a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. The US response to a Tsai victory will depend on what she does. Throughout the campaign, she provided vague and ambiguous responses when asked about her approach to the Chinese mainland. She refused to endorse the “1992 Consensus.” Rather, Tsai pledged to “maintain the status quo” and handle relations with Beijing in accordance with “the will of the Taiwan people” and Taiwan’s Constitution. No one inside or outside Taiwan really knows what this means. It means different things to different people. But the time is fast approaching when Tsai will need to state plainly what she plans to do—perhaps even before the May 20 inauguration. Governing is different than campaigning because a president needs to make real decisions.
During the previous DPP administration, America’s “unofficial” relations with Taiwan sank to an unprecedented low. The Ma administration turned that deteriorating relationship around. US officials now boast that our “unofficial relations” with Taiwan are at their best since 1979. During the campaign, Tsai declared that she is “not Chen Shui-bian.” That is reassuring. No one in this country wants Taiwan to return to the years when it was viewed as a “troublemaker.” Everyone hopes for stable and constructive relations between the US, the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. And I think everyone in the US, Taiwan and mainland hopes for a successful Tsai administration. Many of us had great hopes for the previous DPP administration. You may recall that President Chen said he wanted to be “Taiwan’s Nixon” and engineer a breakthrough in relations with Beijing. People were disappointed. Perhaps this administration will surprise people and keep relations with the mainland moving forward while simultaneously turning around an economy that has been troubled for 16 years or more. Let’s hope so!