1968 Political Science, Glendal Wright, alumni offers an insightful perspective on the situation in Ukraine.
Ukraine-Russia Relations: A Long, Complex and Sad History
Ukraine is once again at the center of international attention and, mostly, for all the wrong reasons. Over the past several months, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased with the seizing of Ukrainian navy vessels in the Kerch Strait leading to the Sea of Azov, the continued land conflict in eastern Ukraine that has already killed over 10,000 people, and the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine by Russia in 2014 is still an international sore spot. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also led to the death of many innocent victums, both on the ground and in the air. Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 leading to the death of 283 passengers and 15 crew. Ukraine has undergone two popular revolutions (Orange Revolution of 2004-2005 and the EuroMaidan Revolution of 2013-2014) in the past two decades, yet the basics of democracy and rule of law are still disrupted by the level of corruption at all levels. The economy is still a basket case with the need for international financial assistance continuing to prop up the government finances. It has even been connected to the election scandal in the US through payments to the Trump campaign manager and changes in the Republican Party platform that concerned the level of support to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
There is probably no other country of the Eurasia land mass that has such a long, complex and sad history spanning centuries. Ukraine, other than Poland, probably has the most disputed history of any of these countries. Additionally, no country, when you consider the sad tragedies of the 20th century, has suffered as much in human losses as has Ukraine from the Great Famine and World War II. The genocides of Cambodia and Rwanda pale in comparison. Yet, from my perspective, very few people have any knowledge of the importance of the geographic location, the ethnic division, and the economic stagnation that forms the core of recent Ukrainian history.
Ukraine is a large country both in population and in size. By population, its 42 million, excluding Crimea, make it the 32nd largest in the world. It is the largest in size of all European countries and ranks 46th in the world. Ukraine means “borderland” in the Slavic language and this exemplifies the problems that Ukraine has experienced over the centuries. The flag of Ukraine is divided between a deep blue at the top, indicating the blue sky, and a golden yellow on the bottom, indicating the production of wheat that made Ukraine the breadbasket of the Soviet Union and great exporter of grain around the world into the 20th Century. It should also be noted that Ukraine was the center of the missile building programs during Soviet times as well. It also had the major coal mines to support the factories in the Soviet era. Ukraine was a pivotal part of the Soviet Union. Its importance will be more clear once the Soviet Union collapses. This association often make people think that Ukraine is Russia. This is a very sore point among Ukrainians. Interestingly, Leonid Kuchma, the second president of Ukraine from 1994-2005, wrote a book titled “Ukraine is Not Russia” that described the differences between being a Ukrainian and being a Russian.
The question is how did Ukraine and Russia get to this situation. The answer is not in the most recent conflict events, but in the long and intertwined history of the Ukrainian and Russian peoples. While they have much in common, their differences have greatly exacerbated the situation. At the root of this is the ethnic and linguistic division of Ukraine as shown in the following map. Note the ethnic division on a geographic basis and the dominance of ethnic Russians in Crimea.
How Did It All Begin: A Long and Winding Road
Unfortunately, Ukraine and Russia are prisoners of their common history and what has occurred in the past decade is a continuation of a sad story. Countries with a thousand years of history have a lot of significant events that form their territory and national character. In this brief note, only a few of the most significant events can be discussed that show how the Ukrainian-Russian relationship has developed. These are briefly summarized and references indicated where there is more detail of these events.
Russia originated in Ukraine
While it is disputed, as almost every part of Ukrainian-Russian history is, the origins of the modern Russian state can be traced to Kiev and Ukraine, at least geographically, if not ethnically. There was a large Slavic empire called the Kievan Rus that was centered in Kiev from the time of Prince Oleg in the 9th century, who supposedly declared that Kiev would be the “mother of Russian cities” in the Chronicles of Past Years. As Kiev later declined the power shifted to Moscow in the 12th century. This began the long history of Ukrainian-Russian relations.
Pereyaslav Council
Everything went well for several centuries following the development of the Kievan Rus empire, but in the 1600s everything changed in terms of the relationship between the Ukraine Cossacks, who were largely independent, and Russia. The Cossacks had battled against Polish rule and the oppression of the Ukrainian peasants by the Polish landowners. A revolt was led by Bohdan Khmelnystky and things went badly for the Cossacks. They turned to Moscow for help and this resulted in the Treaty of Pereyaslav based on the negotiations of the Pereyaslav Council. While the details are still in dispute, the result was that Russia achieved dominance over Ukraine affairs. To the Ukrainian nationalists of today this was the beginning of the Russian domination over Ukraine that began the tensions that leads up to the 21st Century.
The Great Famine of the 1932-33
Can you imagine that the US government in Washington DC would create a famine in Iowa? Well, this is what happened in Ukraine under the domination of the Soviet collectivization process. This begins the sad history of Ukraine in the 20th century. It is still disputed, but the death toll in Ukraine, as well as other areas of Russia, was staggering. It is estimated that six to eight million Ukrainians died as a result of this soviet created famine. Ukrainian nationalists still allege that this was a deliberate genocide of Ukrainians. (for more on this famine read Robert Conquest “The Harvest of Sorrow: Soviet Collectivization and the Terror-famine” or the more recent Anne Appelbaum “Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine”)
World War II in Western Ukraine
If the Great Famine was not enough for Ukraine, the outbreak of WW II created another sad story for Ukraine and resonates even to today. The German invasion of Ukraine led to the great tank battles of WWII in Ukraine. The Soviet forces overran Ukraine and were finally stopped at the siege of Stalingrad. It is estimated that at least four million Ukrainians were killed during WW II and nearly one million Jewish people were killed. One of the great tragedies was carried out by German forces in Kiev at Babi Yar were many Jews in Kiev and other ethnic groups as well were killed.
Ukrainians and Russians fought bravely in the Red Army against the German forces. What is not perhaps known that in Western Ukraine, the Ukrainians sided with the Nazi German forces and fought against the Soviet forces. Russians have never forgotten or forgiven this treachery by the Ukrainians in Western Ukraine. This was largely based on their belief that Germany would grant them independence and their resentment toward the Soviets for the Great Famine. Unfortunately, the situation of the Ukrainians was even worse under the Germans and by the end of the war there was more support for the Soviet forces.
However, an independent Ukrainian army continued to fight against the Soviet forces into the late 1940s, and had some activity into the 1950s. They exacted a heavy toll on Soviet forces and this has never been forgotten by the Russian population of Ukraine.
Post World War II
Following the end of WW II and the Cold War period, soviet domination of Ukraine was very heavy. The Ukrainian language and culture were heavily suppressed and the fear of Ukrainian nationalism was always a concern by the Kremlin rulers. This only continued to fuel the hatred between Ukraine and the Russian rulers. While there was substantial economic support for the Russian dominated areas of eastern Ukraine with heavy industrialization and the concentration of the soviet defense industry in that region, western Ukraine was denied any of these benefits.
Fall of the Soviet Union: Ukraine Gets Sweet Revenge
The reforms initiated by Gorbachev that eventually led to the collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union provided the opportunity for Ukraine to exact a sweet revenge. While Gorbachev was being held captive in Ukraine Crimea, the Ukrainian Parliament declared independence from the Soviet Union and that the laws of the Soviet Union would not be enforced in Ukraine, as well as no funds would be sent to the central authorities in Moscow. The final nail in the coffin was delivered by Ukraine when it refused to join any new Russian federation that was proposed by Yeltsin. Once Ukraine declared it would not join, none of the other former Soviet Republics, particularly Belarus and Kazakhstan, were willing to join. Russia, without Ukraine, was not a viable state. (For a very interesting and detailed account of these events, see Serhii Plokhy “The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union”)
EU Accession/NATO Expansion
Following the fall of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence the Great Game commenced as to whether Ukraine would remain under some Russian domination or move closer to the West, in particular, whether Ukraine would join NATO and the European Union.
In this period from the early 1990s through to present the contest has been over the direction that Ukraine would take in this borderland region. Western influence, militarily or economically, is too much for Russia to take.
Orange Revolution 2004-5 and Euromaidan Revolution 2013-14
The Great Game was played out in Ukraine through two popular revolutions that changed the course of Ukraine to a more Western orientation.
The Orange Revolution was a result of massive voter fraud in the presidential election between Victor Yushchenko, the pro-Ukrainian and western oriented candidate, (who was poisoned by supposedly Russian agents during the campaign, sound familiar), and Victor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian candidate. The courts annulled the original results and, in the re-run, Yushchenko won the vote.
The Yushchenko presidency was a period of increased economic pressure from Russia, largely through the withholding of gas supplies to Ukraine and demanding payment for these supplies.
In the 2010 presidential election, Victor Yanukovych came back to win the presidency in what was considered a free and fair election. Yanukovych tried to walk a fine line between the aspirations of Ukrainians to join the European Union through accession talks and sometimes the possibility of joining NATO.
Unfortunately, this was also a period of very bad economic conditions, not only in Ukraine, but in Europe as well with Greece, Portugal, Spain, and other countries. Ukraine badly needed international financial support to maintain its budget. Yanukovych turned to the IMF for this financing. The IMF was willing to lend, but at conditions similar to the conditions on Greece. This would have meant a severe economic deterioration in the living standards of Ukrainians who were dependent on subsidies, particularly for fuel and energy sources. Yanukovych, seeing what was happening in Greece and other European countries with violent protests, couldn’t agree to these demands. His alternative was to go to Putin and ask for help. Putin promised help, but on the condition that Ukraine not join the EU and NATO. Yanukovych agreed to this and announced the suspension of the signing of an association agreement with the EU in November 2013. This was too much for those Ukrainians that wanted to be able to get the benefits of EU accession, particularly in Western Ukraine where many workers went to Poland and other European countries for work.
This sparked the Euromaidan Revolution of 2013-14 that turned violent and led to the fall of the Yanukovych government and his fleeing to Russia.
The political divisions along ethnical lines are clearly demonstrated in the following maps. Ukraine is effectively divided along the Ukrainian-Russian ethnic lines in their choice for president in the most recent elections.
With presidential elections scheduled for 2019, although it is not clear they will be held, the division has only increased along these lines.
Annex of Crimea/Invasion of Eastern Ukraine
In the months following the Euromaidan Revolution, the eastern part of Ukraine declared independence in some areas and Crimea was invaded by pro-Russian forces. The Russian oriented areas of Ukraine could not stand for a pro-Ukrainian government in Kiev and closer relations with the West.
Crimea is a special situation with regard to its connection with Russia. Many people believe that Crimea was always a part of Ukraine
ne as it is connected by a narrow strip of land to the Ukraine territory. However, Crimea only became a part of Ukraine in 1954 when Krushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine. Historically, Crimea has been a part of Russia for several centuries. Crimea was also the home of the Soviet and then Russia Black Sea fleet and the population is ethnically Russian.
Crimea was not connected by any land route to Russia and this posed a particular problem. It is separated from Russia by a few miles in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov. Russia recently completed a land bridge across the strait and now controls the entrance to the Sea of Azov. This is now a choke point to Ukrainian ports and the access is controlled by the Russian navy. This has led to the recent events in which the Russian navy rammed Ukrainian navy boats and took Ukrainian navy personnel into custody.
Where Does Ukraine Go From Here?
The past is probably the future for Ukraine. Its geographic borderland location will continue to put it into the geopolitical Great Game. Barring any major change in the Russian international policy of supporting Russian ethnic groups outside Russia proper and the continuing fear of EU and NATO expansion to Russia; not much change can be expected. Unfortunately, the present situation seems to be escalating to a more confrontational situation and military conflict. In the recent events, Russian forces have directly confronted Ukrainian forces and this can only be interpreted as a willingness of Russia to use this force. In this situation, miscalculations and misinformation can have serious consequences for Ukraine and Europe.
All maps from Max Fisher, “This one map helps explain Ukraine’s protests,” Washington Post, December 9, 2013.