Political Science alumni, Glendal Wright (AKA Our Man in Kiev), regularly shares his observations about European politics.
The Unintended Consequences of Brexit: Great Britain becomes Less Britain and United Kingdom becomes Disunited Kingdom
Perhaps people don’t understand the difference between what constitutes Great Britain and the United Kingdom. It is a matter of location and sovereignty. Great Britain is composed of England, Scotland and Wales and is located on one island. United Kingdom is properly termed the combination of Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) with Northern Ireland, which is on a separate island, Ireland. The United Kingdom is Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
This is very significant in the current context of what will happens if the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland exit the EU. When the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, there was a split among the voters of these four nations. The voters of Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay within the EU, while the voters of England and Wales voted to leave.
Into this mix there is the situation that Scotland voted in a referendum to remain as part of Great Britain in September 2014, never thinking that the whole United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would two years later vote to leave the EU.
As well, Northern Ireland shares the only land border between the UK and the EU. But as long as the UK is in the EU, there are no controls on the border and people and goods move freely between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The people on both sides of this border want this to stay this way and it was part of the Good Friday agreement that ended the long running “troubles” in Northern Ireland. Imposing controls on the border may not re-ignite the “troubles,” but it will create economic difficulties as now goods and services freely cross the border.
You might think that the citizens of the UK would prefer to stay as one United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland rather than have all the problems of separating from the EU. Apparently not.
A recent poll of the ruling Conservative Party members found that 63% of respondents in the UK would rather have Brexit even if it means Scotland leaves the Great Britain and 59% also said they prefer Brexit even if it means Northern Ireland leaves the United Kingdom. An astounding 61% of the Conservative Party votes would even be willing for the UK to suffer economic damage if it is necessary to leave the UK.
During the recent European Parliament elections, the UK Brexit Party had a significant showing by winning 28 of the 73 seats and nearly one-third of the total votes. The other main political parties were far behind.
The main results are that the UK is very polarized across the Brexit issue and it is unclear that even if another referendum was held on leaving the EU that the remain position could prevail.
They seem to be on the path toward a Less Britain and Disunited Kingdom. If the UK leaves the EU with no-deal Brexit, Scotland will likely go for another independence referendum and this time it will most probably succeed. So, Great Britain will be Less Britain.
If there is imposed a border control between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland then it is likely that the republicans in Northern Ireland will push for a vote on uniting the whole island as the Republic of Ireland. This will be driven more by economic forces than the old Irish Nationalists and Unionist divide. Even the moderate politicians in Ireland are openly discussing uniting the whole island. There would no longer be a United Kingdom, just a Disunited Kingdom.
And, the United Kingdom will need a new flag.
The flag is called the Union Jack. It is a combination of three crosses of the patron saints of England. The Saint George’s cross (England) is a red cross on a white field. The Saint Andrew’s cross (Scotland) is a white saltire on a blue field. The Cross of St. Patrick (Ireland) is a red saltire on a white field.
The Cross of St. David (Wales) was never incorporated into the Union Jack.