Our Man in Kiev, alumni Glendal Wright, continues to share his insight into European politics.
Below he argues that the “UK Parliamentary Elections Are Like Solving a Rubik’s Cube.”
If anyone thought that parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 would clarify and solve the Brexit dilemma the country has found itself in over the past three years; they are very likely to be disappointed. The two-party system is fractured and the likelihood that a clear parliamentary majority will be formed by one party seems problematic. The complexity of determining the various political formations would be more difficult than solving the Rubik’s Cube. No matter which way you turn the cube; you still cannot seem to get the solid colors aligned.
The sides of the cube are (1) the determined Brexit leavers, (2) the hopeful EU remainers, (3) the never Boris Johnson for Prime Minister, (4) the never Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister, (5) Scotland wants another referendum on independence, and (6) the never trust or believe any politician.
The Major Players
The ruling Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, have staked their election on finishing Brexit with their deal and greatly increasing spending for the National Health Service, increasing the number of police on the streets, and more spending on education. With 298 seats presently, they are the closest to getting the 321 needed for parliament majority. The slogan for the Conservative Party is “Get Brexit Done.” This seems attractive to voters who are tired of this whole process and distrustful of the Parliament for not getting this done.
The Labour Party has a rather unique approach to attracting voters. They are offering to negotiate a new Brexit deal and then submit the new deal with a choice of that deal or opting to stay in the EU in another referendum. Seems they feel strongly both ways. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, has promised to be neutral on this referendum vote. They want out of the EU, but not really sure. The other part of their program is to take back government control of the railroads and some of the utilities that were privatized during the Conservative (Tory) party rule. They have also promised a program to provide access to nationwide broadband connections throughout the UK within the next ten years. With only 242 seats presently in the Parliament, Labour would need a massive shift to win a majority. The slogan for the Labour Party is “It’s time for real change.”
The dilemma that both major parties face is that neither party leader, Boris or Jeremy, is particularly liked or trusted by the citizens. Distrust is the main criticism of them and what they have promised.
The Minor Players and Kingmakers
The Liberal Democrats, led by Jo Swinson, is promising to revoke the Article 50 request by the UK that started the process of Brexit. If you are an ardent remainer, this is your party. However, the Liberal Democrats are still distrusted from their time going into coalition with the Conservative Party and their support for policies that went against their manifesto, particularly the student tuition issue. Jo Swinson has stated they would never go into a coalition with Boris. With 20 seats in the present parliament, the Liberal Democrats can only hope that the two main contenders need them for a coalition and hope to have the leverage to win on their issue of not leaving the EU. It would seem that Labour Party is their only hope. The slogan for the Liberal Democrats is “Stop Brexit. Build a Brighter Future.”
The UK Brexit party, led by Nigel Farage, is the party of the die-hard leavers. They are even more extreme on leaving that the Conservatives. They have strategically decided not to run candidates in districts where the Conservatives are the incumbents so as not to split that vote and give either the Labour or Liberal Democrats a chance to pick up the seat. Even though they do not have any seats in the present Parliament and with their strategic approach to not running against Conservative Party seats, the Brexit Party seems unlikely to find any seats in the next Parliament.
The Scottish National Party (SNP), led by Nicola Sturgeon, is making one promise to their supporters in Scotland. They want a new referendum on Scottish independence. They are likely to take even more seats in Parliament in Scotland and may be the kingmaker. Boris Johnson has ruled out allowing a new Scottish referendum and Jeremy Corbyn will only allow a Scottish referendum after at least two years of Labour Party government and in the interim promises to spend up to 100 bilion pounds on new infrastructure in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has stated that under no circumstances will the SNP go into a coalition with the Conservatives, but would go into coalition with Labour if Labour agrees to the new referendum. She believes that Jeremy Corbin would go for this if it is his only chance to form a Labour government. With 35 seats in the present parliament and the good possibility that they will win more seats in the next election at the expense of the Labour Party, the SNP is in a very favorable position to win another commitment to a referendum if Labour will need it to form a government. The likelihood of a Conservative/SNP agreement is very remote.
The Lesser Known
The Democratic Unionist Party, led by Arlene Foster, has 10 seats in the present parliament, but played a critical role in defeating the Brexit proposals of Theresa May. Without the support of the 20 Democratic Unionist Party members the Conservatives could not get the majority in parliament that was needed. So, a small group can play a major role. The Democratic Unionist represent the Protestant population of Northern Ireland and the issue of the hard or soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland frustrated the whole Brexit process. The Democratic Unionist are a wild-card in the making of a parliament majority for any of the major players. However, the Democratic Unionist are for Brexit, while Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. This election gives an opportunity for the opposition parties to gain seats from the Democratic Unionists. Everyone is afraid the results will ignite the old tensions in Northern Ireland after the vote.
Plaid Cymru, led by Adam Price, is a nationalist oriented party representing Wales in the UK Parliament. With only 4 seats in the present Parliament they had little influence. They want an independent Wales with membership in the EU. With this platform, they may pick up more seats in the upcoming parliament elections.
There are 24 independent parliamentarians in the present Parliament and these could exert some influence if they can maintain this number in the next Parliament. However, these are being heavily targeted by the major players and the Liberal Democrats that hope they could switch these seats.
The Ugly Undercurrent
There is an ugly undercurrent in this election that it is not clear how it will play out. There are allegations on anti-Semitism in the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn has been put on the defensive over this. The UK Chief Rabbi has made these accusations just weeks before the election. Several members of the Labour Party that were members of Parliament resigned before the election citing this anti-Semitic sentiment in the party leadership. Jeremy Corbyn was called on to apologize and he has not done this.
Conversely, the Conservative Party has been accused of islamophobia within its ranks and this may have some consequences in districts, particularly around London.
The Unknown Factors
The elections will be held on December 12, which is not a good time to hold elections due to possible weather problems that may limit the turnout in some places, particularly in Scotland. It is not clear who this would favor, but most likely the Conservatives that seem to have a better organization at the local levels.
The second unknown factor is the turnout of the younger voters who are more ardent remainers. They may see the possibility of a Labour government or the Liberal Democrats as another chance to reverse the Brexit referendum. In the previous Parliament elections, the failure of the younger voters to turnout hurt the Labour and Liberal Democrats. They could be decisive in certain areas, particularly around London and the southeast areas more inclined to vote for a remain option referendum or stop Brexit altogether.
What Do the Polls Show?
With three weeks to go to the election on December 12, it appeared that Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party would have an overwhelming majority in the Parliament with about a 60-seat advantage. However, with about a week to go the polls are showing a much closer race and even though the Conservative Party still has a lead in the polls, it may not be the overwhelming majority that Boris Johnson was hoping for. This only makes this last week of campaigning even more exciting and the outcome more uncertain.