In an update to his most recent analysis, alumni Glendal Wright suggests that recent UK elections offer both parallels and lessons for the U.S. presidential election.
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The results are in for the UK Parliament elections and the extent of the Conservative Party win has surprised many and the finger pointing has begun. As a Brit might say: The Conservative Party ran a “brilliant” campaign resulting in a “smashing” victory and Conservative supporters are “over the moon” while the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats are “gobsmacked” by the results.

The Conservative Party increased its number to 365 (a gain of 47), while the Labour Party dropped to 203 (a decline of 59). This is the lowest level of Labour Party membership since the 1930s.

Finally, it seems, the UK has set its course for the next five years of this Parliament’s term. The voters solved the Rubik’s Cube and the strong sides are apparent.

The sides of the cube were (1) the determined Brexit leavers, (2) the hopeful EU remainers, (3) the never Boris Johnson for Prime Minister, (4) the never Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister, (5) Scotland wants another referendum on independence, and (6) the never trust or believe any politician.

The strong sides of the cube seemed to have been the following: (1) the determined Brexit leavers, (2) the never Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister, and (3) Scotland wants another referendum on independence.

The Conservative Party wiped out the Labour Party in the midlands and northwest region of the UK and the Scottish National Party did the same in Scotland. The Labour Party membership in the House of Commons is now at the lowest level since the 1930s. Some constituencies that had voted for Labour for more than 50 years went to the Conservatives.

The backbone of the Labour Party was effectively broken in this election primarily due to a number of factors. First, the voter backlash in these areas that were determined leavers and Labour had no program for them other than another referendum on leaving. The Conservative Party slogan of Get Brexit Done gave them their only choice.

Second, the never Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister seems to be the main factor among many of these voters. The die-hard Labour Party constituencies simply could not go for the socialist program that was being promoted by the Labour Party.

Finally, the voters in Scotland abandoned the Labour Party in favor of their own Scottish National Party to get a referendum on independence. The Scottish National Party increased their seats in Parliament to 48 of the 59 Scottish seats.

All of these factors seem to have created a perfect storm against the Labour Party and created the opportunity for the Conservatives to gain in the traditional Labour Party areas.

The Fallout

Some heads will roll. The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Jo Swinson, lost her seat to a Scottish National Party candidate, so a new leader of the Liberal Democrats will be needed in the coming weeks.

Jeremy Corbyn has indicated he will not lead the Labour Party in the next election and has started a process of Labour determining its future course. The leadership fight in the Labour Party is guaranteed to be intense. With all the blame being placed on Jeremy Corbyn for the loss, there is no heir apparent and the rank-and-file of the party still seem strong supporters of the Corbyn progressive program.

The strength of the nationalist oriented parties increased. The Scottish National Party focused on the independence referendum and staying with the EU. Their program was widely accepted by the Scottish voters.

The nationalist oriented parties in Northern Ireland also gained in the vote. The Democratic Unionist Party lost the leader of their party in the Parliament and another party member to the Socialist Democratic and Labour Party and Sein Finn Party candidates. Now there are more Irish nationalist Members of Parliament than there are Irish Unionist members. This could portent potential problems in Northern Ireland if there are further problems with the Brexit border agreement and the resurgence of some of the militia in certain areas of Northern Ireland.

The good news is that with the huge win of the Conservatives and their intent to exit the EU in the next year, the uncertainty that has been hanging over this whole issue seems to be resolved finally. No more cliffhanger votes in the Parliament over the Brexit agreement.

The other good news is that there will be a record number of women MPs in the new Parliament. There will be 220 female MPs out of the 650 members. While still at a low level, the trend continues of increasing female Members of Parliament.

Parallels and Lessons to be Learned to Presidential Election 2020

There are some interesting parallels and lessons to be learned that might be taken from the UK election to the 2020 US Presidential election. Some of the political pundits are already drawing these parallels and lessons. Some of these are identified here.

The UK electorate got tired of the Brexit delay (substitute impeachment) and wanted it to be ended. They were willing to punish the political parties, Labour and Liberal Democrats, (substitute Democrats) that appeared to be only interested in obstructing what they had voted for. The Conservative Party (substitute Republican Party) stayed with a clear message of Get Brexit Done (substitute Make American Great Again) and putting the obstructionists (substitute Democrats) on the defensive.

The UK electorate was not willing to support an extreme progressive or socialist candidate like Jeremy Corbyn (substitute Sanders/Warren). The electorate simply did not believe the free lunch approach of the Labour Party (substitute Democrats) for health care (substitute Medicare for all).

The Labour Party heartland (substitute Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) was willing to change their votes to the Conservative Party (substitute Republican Party/Trump). The issues of lack of employment due to the trade policies and immigration (substitute NAFTA/open southern border) from the EU resonated with these voters.

There seem to be lessons for both the Democrat and Republican Parties to be applied from the results of the UK Parliament elections.