Alumni Glendal Wright takes a look at the surprising results of recent local elections in Turkey, Russia, Hungary, and Hong Kong.
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Winning elections in authoritarian and illiberal democracies used to be pretty easy for the ruling party. The old technique of divide and conquer the opposition worked well, and if it didn’t, stuffing the ballot box could be relied upon to get the required outcome. Changing election laws and qualifications for candidates were also useful methods to be sure the opposition had little chance of winning. Finally, buying votes was equally useful if pushed to the limit. But these may not be working so well from the experience with local government elections in some of the more authoritarian and illiberal democracies.

The recent local elections in Hong Kong where the Beijing dominated political parties were dealt a humiliating defeat. But equally, local government elections in other countries with less than stellar election fairness history have provided new challenges to the old election rigging regimes. In this past year, local government elections in Turkey, Russia, and Hungary have dealt severe blows to the ruling parties and emboldened the opposition parties. This has been accomplished through the use of some new technology and voting techniques that the old regimes have not managed to control.

Turkey Opposition Smashes the Ruling Party

This phenomenon began with the local government elections held in March 2019. The ruling Justice and Development Party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the AKP, had dominated the political scene in Turkey for more than a decade. The opposition in previous elections had been very divided and only drained votes away from each other. The main opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP), had only managed to win a few mayoral and council seats in previous elections. However, with the problems Turkey was experiencing with the refugee problems from Syria and a deep economic decline over the past decade, the people were looking for change. In national level elections, the rural conservative voter base of the AKP had tended to provide a base for the AKP to maintain control at the national level. However, in the urban areas where the economic and refugee problems were more apparent, the opposition was able to marshal their forces and through coalitions and voting strategically they were able to overcome the great advantage the AKP had in previous elections.

The results were clear. The CHP after the elections had control of 5 of the 6 largest population centers in Turkey including Ankara and Istanbul. They won the mayor race in Istanbul in the first round by 14,000 votes. However, the AKP took to the courts to demand a re-vote and got it. However, in the rerun of the Mayor race, the CHP candidate got even more votes and won by 54.2% to 45%.

To Putin With Love

The masters of the rigged elections would have to be the old apparatchiks from the Soviet Union and practiced equally well by the Putin loyalists. But even they may have met their match in the Moscow City Council elections held in September 2019.

Prior to the elections, the United Russia Party (Putin’s Party) held 40 of the 45 seats on the Moscow City Council. The United Russia Party knew they were in for a tough election, so they managed to have banned from the ballot 30 opposition leaders before the election. Even the candidates of the United Russia Party, fearing if their affiliation was known, managed to run, but not on the United Russia ballot list.

The opposition used the technology of the Smart Vote tool to let opposition voters know who to vote for in the districts. The opposition voters registered on the website and then received a text message as to who to vote for based on which candidate was best positioned to defeat the United Russia Party candidate. Thus, the opposition avoided the old divide and conquer strategy that had worked in the past.

When the results were in the opposition managed to win 20 seats on the Moscow City Council and deal a serious blow to the hopes of the United Russia Party for the next parliament elections. Interestingly, the biggest beneficiary of this result was the Communist Party which increased its members on the Moscow City Council from 5 to 13.

Hungary: Taking on the Illiberal Democracy

While Hungary might be as authoritarian as Turkey and Russia, it has become the model of an illiberal democracy. The ruling Fidesz Party has managed to maintain a supermajority in the Parliament allowing it to revise the Constitution to its advantage in controlling the courts, orchestrating an almost complete monopoly of the media outlets, and imposing rather strict controls on the work of non-governmental organizations to include such strict restrictions that the George Soros founded and funded Central European University, headquartered in Budapest since the fall of the Soviet Union, has move to Vienna. You can’t have a much better record than this without being called authoritarian.

Local government elections were held in Hungary on October 13, 2019. The main battleground for the elections were the 23 cities where the most opposition to the ruling Fidesz Party was concentrated. The election resulted in the 13 cities being retained by the government aligned or supported candidates with 10 going to the opposition, an increase from 3 prior to the election.

The biggest surprise was in the race for the Budapest mayor and district seats. The opposition won with 51% of the vote for mayor. The opposition also took control of the Budapest City Council winning 18 seats while Fidesz won 13 seats. Fidesz had lost control of the Budapest city government for the first time in 15 years. In addition, the opposition won 14 out of the 23 Budapest district councils.

Hong Kong Protestors Overwhelm the Controlled Election System

The months of protest in Hong Kong leading up to the district council elections on 24 November 2019 provide a textbook example of how a mass protest can be sustained by technology and opposition to the ruling party organized without a real opposition party.

The protests began with the attempt by the Hong Kong Municipal Council to enact a law allowing for the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to the mainland for prosecution. This energized the opposition and there were several weeks and months of street demonstrations, often violent clashes, that keep the opposition mobilized. The street demonstrations provided another opportunity for using social media to inform demonstrators of where to go and allowed for them to out maneuver the police and avoid arrests.

Up to the point of the elections, the Hong Kong authorities had described the protestors as “reckless and selfish rioters” and were being manipulated by outside forces. But the elections allowed for the opposition to claim legitimacy and leave no doubt that the mass of the people supported their positions.

There was a turnout of 71% of the voters, over 3 million voters. The control of 17 of the 18 districts went to opposition candidates by winning 388 seats. The Pro-Beijing and independent candidates could only win 62 seats on these councils. While the District Councils have little direct authority, the election results provided a clear referendum on the sentiment of the people toward the policies of the Pro-Beijing ruling Hong Kong administration. More importantly, the opposition won 117 District Council sub-sector seats on the 1,200 member election council that votes on the selection of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Administrative Authority.

Precursors to the Rise of the Opposition

If it hadn’t been for strategic mistakes by the regimes the opposition in each of these countries might not have been able to mobilize their forces. In each case there was some major policy mistake by the regime that angered a large number of the population. In Turkey, it was the mismanagement of the economy that created substantial unemployment along with the influx of the Syrian refugees. In Russia it was raising the pension age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 63 for women that incensed the older population that took to the streets in protests. In Hungary, it was a law that allowed for companies to require workers to work up to 400 hours of overtime in a year, from the previous 250, and defer their compensation for up to three years. This became known as the slavery law. In China, it was the intent to pass a law allowing for extradition of Hong Kong residents to the mainland that sparked the discontent and demonstrations that gone on for months.

Lessons Learned for Opposition Forces

The key to these successes seems to be to focus on a particular policy decision of the ruling party and mobilize demonstrations and protests over several months preceding the election.

Second, develop a unified opposition in which the parties and candidates do not compete for the same voters and focus on supporting an opposition candidate that can gain substantial number of votes.

Third, utilize social media and Smart Vote methods to identify the opposition candidates to those wanting to vote against the ruling party candidate.