Our Man in Kyiv, Glendal Wright, reflects on Brexit.

After only one month of Brexit trade, there is a major crisis for those Brits living on the continent that cannot get their basic British food, particularly the biscuits, marmalade and tea. They appear to be suffering from Brexit regret.

The Brits in Brussels who shop at British food shops to get their basics are finding the shelves are empty. One British food shop has not had a supply of biscuits for more than 5 weeks.

The Brexit bureaucracy has seemed to have broken the Brexit business. The truck traffic from the British Isles has dropped dramatically since the first of January. The customs requirements to identify the percent of milk/cream in the custard cremes has jammed up the system.

There are new routes of supply forming from Ireland to the continent. Previous to Brexit, the truckers in Dublin boarded a ferry to cross over to a port in Wales, then drove to the port of Dover to take the ferry across to Calais on the French coast. But now with the customs delays, it is becoming faster to put the cargo on a boat and send it from Dublin direct to the European continent. According to the Road Haulage Associations in the UK that represents the trucking industry, the level of exports from the UK to the EU has declined 68% in January.

Scottish fishermen are losing their fresh seafood catch to the continent because it is taking so long to get customs clearance that by the time is arrives to restaurants in France, it is spoiled. The Scottish fishermen are taking to delivering their catch directly to ports in Germany and Denmark and bypassing the customs problems.

The customs paperwork has increased the time for shipments to be cleared and the delay and expenses are increasing. Some shipment couriers are delivering items to customers who are refusing acceptance once they see what needs to be done to receive the shipment and the additional VAT and customs costs. Some clothing retailers are not accepting the returns from customers on the continent as it is too expensive to take them back.

The impact of Brexit on economic growth has always shown a negative trend for several years following the exit of the UK from the EU. Estimates of a negative 3.3% GDP growth for 2020 are forecasted and this along with the impact of COVID portends a very weak or negative GDP growth and recovery going into 2024.

Significantly, the next UK parliament elections are scheduled for 2024 with attempts by the Scottish National Party to get another referendum on Scottish independence before that time.